1. While Maine seems to be avoiding the worst of the recession, slowly and inexorably businesses are closing, for lease signs are appearing and houses are being foreclosed.
2. Article in todays USA Today re: vouchers for new car purchases. For those that read my blog, I suggested buyer vouchers that would stimulate demand side(vs supply side strategies) months ago. Doesn't it seem obvious? It's my belief that supply side policies should be used as pro-active strategy to maintain growth while demand side policies should be used reactively in downturns. I continually listen to pundit talking points that tax cuts should be targeted at small businesses to allow them to hire and grow their businesses. Question: if no one is buying, why would a business hire people, buy new equipment or increase production with any realized savings from tax cuts? We need to spur DEMAND via a bottom up approach. Throwing money at the auto companies just prolonged the inevitable. We should have taken the money and driven new car sales with vouchers and serious incentives.
3. I had a chance to drive through a lot of mid coast Maine. The roads are bad! I wanted to go up to the observatory at the new narrows bridge in bucksport but it was closed for the winter.
4. I keep thinking I need to get back into the bar/lounge/club business but I really enjoy not being up all night.
5. Facebook takes an enormous amount of time!
6. I heard that an old acquaintence has had or is having some health issues. Your in my thoughts Steve!
phone is ringing...to be continued
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Friday, December 19, 2008
Some End of Week Thoughts
1. With oil at $35/barrel why has the price of gasoline in maine stalled at $1.71. The last time oil was this price, gas was $1.25/gal.
2. From a buyer standpoint it seems that immigrants are leading the way for business acquisitions. "Regular" Americans that I talk to do just don't want to work--and certainly not blue collar jobs. Most are looking for a business that they can have someone manage while they collect pay.
3. I'm on Facebook after years of having various myspace accounts. It's nice to reconnect with old friends.
4. I wonder every year, at about this time, why I'm still in Maine! Cold winters are just miserable. But then, like every year, spring, summer and fall make me wonder why I would want to be anywhere else.
5. Reading LeCarre's George Smiley stories. Pretty dry so far.
6. Lots of small boutique shops closing in the Old Port.
7. Pondering a reunion of old NECN staff....
2. From a buyer standpoint it seems that immigrants are leading the way for business acquisitions. "Regular" Americans that I talk to do just don't want to work--and certainly not blue collar jobs. Most are looking for a business that they can have someone manage while they collect pay.
3. I'm on Facebook after years of having various myspace accounts. It's nice to reconnect with old friends.
4. I wonder every year, at about this time, why I'm still in Maine! Cold winters are just miserable. But then, like every year, spring, summer and fall make me wonder why I would want to be anywhere else.
5. Reading LeCarre's George Smiley stories. Pretty dry so far.
6. Lots of small boutique shops closing in the Old Port.
7. Pondering a reunion of old NECN staff....
Saturday, December 6, 2008
MIM's has closed
hmm...It's almost time to re-open Hanson Bros. Seafood/Cafe, and that seems the perfect place.
Neal Stephenson
For those that have not heard of Neal Stephenson, go to the local bookstore or get on Amazon and check it out. A cross between Umberto Eco and William Gibson, Neal writes historical fiction with an element of mathmatics and economics. I would first recommend Cryptonomicon, which deals with WWII code breaking, treasure hunters, sovereign data banks, and the history of early computing.
However is greatest work in the Baroque Cycle which details the emergence of the financial markets during the 1600's and the development of the scientific method through intertwining tales of historic persona. How the guy ever did the research and wrote the 9 books(3 volumes of 1000+ pages) is beyond me. His most recent book is Anathema.
However is greatest work in the Baroque Cycle which details the emergence of the financial markets during the 1600's and the development of the scientific method through intertwining tales of historic persona. How the guy ever did the research and wrote the 9 books(3 volumes of 1000+ pages) is beyond me. His most recent book is Anathema.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Big 3 Auto Bailout
Just a quick idea on the Big 3 auto bailout. Rather than give a large loan package to the companies themselves, there may be a better way to respond. First the government should purchase a large stake in the companies to gain control of management and force a new strategic vision. That would cost $2-$5b in stock purchases. Second, rather than loan the companies $30b+ with no guarantee of a payback, no guarantee of fundamental change, and the appearance of rewarding failure, use the money to offer a $10,000 rebate per new Big 3 car purchase on vehicles that meet at least a 24mpg fuel rating. This would have a three fold effect:
It would stimulate demand for Big 3 products and boost sales immediately.
It would benefit consumers who need to make a new car purchase or want to shift into a more fuel efficient vehicle and stimulate consumer spending.
Motivate lenders to make auto loans since the rebate would reduce the loan to value ratio.
All stakeholders would benefit: the Big 3 would benefit from increase sales and moving current inventory, lenders would have a relatively safe market to make loans and earn a return, consumers would be able to buy a fuel efficient American automobile at a discount, and the government would benefit from a increase in the share value it’s stock purchase.
If the entire $25b was spent on $10k rebates, that would amount to $60-$75b in auto sales with on an average of a $25k vehicle price.
It just seems to me that throwing billions or hundreds of billions at companies and hoping for a trickle down effect isn't really working. We are still talking about relieving home owners who are facing foreclosures...wasn't the financial bailout supposed to address that? Top down economic stimulus is a failing model...bottom up stimulus and incentives directly benefit americans and if done properly will trickle up.
It would stimulate demand for Big 3 products and boost sales immediately.
It would benefit consumers who need to make a new car purchase or want to shift into a more fuel efficient vehicle and stimulate consumer spending.
Motivate lenders to make auto loans since the rebate would reduce the loan to value ratio.
All stakeholders would benefit: the Big 3 would benefit from increase sales and moving current inventory, lenders would have a relatively safe market to make loans and earn a return, consumers would be able to buy a fuel efficient American automobile at a discount, and the government would benefit from a increase in the share value it’s stock purchase.
If the entire $25b was spent on $10k rebates, that would amount to $60-$75b in auto sales with on an average of a $25k vehicle price.
It just seems to me that throwing billions or hundreds of billions at companies and hoping for a trickle down effect isn't really working. We are still talking about relieving home owners who are facing foreclosures...wasn't the financial bailout supposed to address that? Top down economic stimulus is a failing model...bottom up stimulus and incentives directly benefit americans and if done properly will trickle up.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Thoughts of the week.
1. I thought Warren Buffets op-ed piece did a nice of job of pointing out what seems obvious: buy assets and equity during a market downturn.
2. Seems like a number of restuarants will be closing or changing hands in the next few months. Rumor has it that after 4 months of operation, Prost and Onyx have been sold or are in the process of being sold. The kitchen is closed.
3. Chris Busby at The Bollard asked good questions for City Council candidates--but I especially like the question re: Riverside Municipal Golf Course. I've been trying to get traction on the subject so it least someone is putting it out there.
4. Seems like a great fall foliage season.
5. I suspect Maine will avoid the worst lows of the current/future "recession"; but it would be nice if real estate values dropped a little more!
6. John, the bartender at the Grill Room is running for city council.
2. Seems like a number of restuarants will be closing or changing hands in the next few months. Rumor has it that after 4 months of operation, Prost and Onyx have been sold or are in the process of being sold. The kitchen is closed.
3. Chris Busby at The Bollard asked good questions for City Council candidates--but I especially like the question re: Riverside Municipal Golf Course. I've been trying to get traction on the subject so it least someone is putting it out there.
4. Seems like a great fall foliage season.
5. I suspect Maine will avoid the worst lows of the current/future "recession"; but it would be nice if real estate values dropped a little more!
6. John, the bartender at the Grill Room is running for city council.
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