Friday, December 5, 2008

Big 3 Auto Bailout

Just a quick idea on the Big 3 auto bailout. Rather than give a large loan package to the companies themselves, there may be a better way to respond. First the government should purchase a large stake in the companies to gain control of management and force a new strategic vision. That would cost $2-$5b in stock purchases. Second, rather than loan the companies $30b+ with no guarantee of a payback, no guarantee of fundamental change, and the appearance of rewarding failure, use the money to offer a $10,000 rebate per new Big 3 car purchase on vehicles that meet at least a 24mpg fuel rating. This would have a three fold effect:

It would stimulate demand for Big 3 products and boost sales immediately.
It would benefit consumers who need to make a new car purchase or want to shift into a more fuel efficient vehicle and stimulate consumer spending.
Motivate lenders to make auto loans since the rebate would reduce the loan to value ratio.

All stakeholders would benefit: the Big 3 would benefit from increase sales and moving current inventory, lenders would have a relatively safe market to make loans and earn a return, consumers would be able to buy a fuel efficient American automobile at a discount, and the government would benefit from a increase in the share value it’s stock purchase.

If the entire $25b was spent on $10k rebates, that would amount to $60-$75b in auto sales with on an average of a $25k vehicle price.

It just seems to me that throwing billions or hundreds of billions at companies and hoping for a trickle down effect isn't really working. We are still talking about relieving home owners who are facing foreclosures...wasn't the financial bailout supposed to address that? Top down economic stimulus is a failing model...bottom up stimulus and incentives directly benefit americans and if done properly will trickle up.

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